Trump-Xi meeting illustration showing AI, tariffs, trade barriers and critical minerals

Special Report
TradeTrend
Published: Sep 21, 2026

WASHINGTON, September 21, 2026: Artificial intelligence, critical minerals and the future of the U.S.-China trade truce are among the issues facing Donald Trump and Xi Jinping as the two presidents prepare to meet in Washington, with their economic relationship now organized around a mix of commercial trade, national-security controls and new government-to-government mechanisms.

Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the United States from September 23 to 25 at Trump’s invitation, with the two leaders scheduled to meet on September 24. Their talks come less than two months before the current U.S.-China economic arrangements reach their November 10 deadline. 

The Peterson Institute for International Economics expects an “uncomfortable truce” to continue, with limited cooperation possible on AI safeguards while the two countries maintain their broader technology and economic rivalry. PIIE says neither side is expected to abandon the principal instruments of its current policy.

CSIS researchers are also looking at continued stability, with tariff arrangements, rare-earth flows, additional purchase commitments and AI safeguards among the issues to watch.

A ChinaFile discussion organized with the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis points to the future of the export-control truce, the proposed AI risk-and-safety dialogue and differing interpretations of “constructive strategic stability” as unresolved parts of the relationship.

Why Are Trump And Xi Meeting Now?

The November 10 expiry of the existing U.S.-China economic arrangements is one of the immediate issues surrounding the meeting, while Washington and Beijing are also working through mechanisms created during their May understanding.

The White House says the two sides established a Board of Trade for bilateral trade in non-sensitive goods and a Board of Investment for investment issues. The May package also included Chinese commitments involving agricultural products, critical minerals and Boeing aircraft.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has described the Board of Trade as a mechanism for monitoring implementation, optimizing trade in non-sensitive goods and improving market access for American farmers, manufacturers and workers. USTR has also sought information on products that could qualify for tariff modifications, including trade value, effects on consumers and producers, China’s share of imports and changes in trade flows.

China’s Commerce Ministry has framed the latest consultations around implementation of agreements reached by the two presidents, bilateral trade and investment and other economic and trade issues of mutual concern. 

The mechanism is therefore broader than a single tariff negotiation. It creates a continuing process through which Washington and Beijing can review product treatment, market access and implementation of their agreements.

Why Is AI At The Center Of The Talks?

AI has now entered the formal U.S.-China economic dialogue. China’s Commerce Ministry has confirmed that AI-related issues were discussed during the latest economic and trade consultations, while the two governments have been working toward a government-to-government AI dialogue.

Washington continues to treat advanced computing, semiconductors and related technologies as national-security issues. China has repeatedly objected to U.S. restrictions affecting Chinese technology companies and has challenged American allegations concerning Chinese AI firms and model-distillation practices.

PIIE identifies AI safeguards as one area where limited cooperation could remain possible even as the wider technology competition continues. Its analysis expects the United States to retain national-security export controls on advanced chips, semiconductor production equipment and software. PIIE

Carnegie researchers have separately proposed a narrower U.S.-China communication channel for serious AI incidents, focusing on rapid communication rather than a comprehensive agreement governing AI development.

CSIS researchers have also placed AI safeguards alongside semiconductor capabilities and technology controls among the issues to watch at the summit.

ChinaFile’s panel of China-focused researchers says preparations for an AI risk-and-safety dialogue are underway, but its timing, participants and agenda remain unsettled.

The AI discussion consequently spans several different issues: safety and incident communication, commercial competition over AI models, and the underlying dispute over computing capacity and semiconductor technology.

Why Are Rare Earths And Critical Minerals So Important To The Meeting?

Critical minerals sit at the intersection of ordinary commerce and national-security policy. U.S. trade officials have incorporated supply-chain resilience into the Board of Trade process, while China has defended its export-control system and said compliant civilian applications can receive licensing.

A U.S. Geological Survey assessment of 84 mineral commodities found China was the leading contributor to the probability-weighted net decrease in U.S. GDP in disruption scenarios for 46 commodities, including all of the rare-earth elements examined, as well as gallium, germanium, tungsten and magnesium metal.

CSIS researchers say China’s position in rare-earth mining, processing and magnet manufacturing has left U.S. and allied industrial supply chains exposed to disruption. Their analysis also points to the time required to establish alternative capacity outside China.

ChinaFile contributor Paul Triolo identifies the rare-earth issue as part of the export-control truce reached in Busan. The arrangement placed China’s critical-mineral, rare-earth and magnet controls and Washington’s Affiliates Rule in abeyance, leaving the future of those measures to be negotiated.

For manufacturers, the issue extends beyond whether exports are formally permitted. Supply depends on licensing, processing capacity, magnet production and the predictability of access to materials used in automobiles, electronics, defense equipment and other industrial products.

What Do Trump And Xi Want On Trade And Tariffs?

The U.S. trade framework is based on reciprocal treatment of selected products rather than an across-the-board return to lower tariffs.

USTR’s Board of Trade process asks businesses to identify non-sensitive goods that could receive tariff modifications and seeks information on trade values, consumer and producer effects, tariff structures and changes in bilateral trade.

China has described a framework involving reciprocal tariff reductions covering products of comparable value, with a figure of at least $30 billion on each side discussed in connection with the negotiations. The figure remains a negotiating framework rather than a completed tariff-reduction package.

The commercial commitments extend beyond tariffs. The White House says China committed to purchase at least $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products in 2026, 2027 and 2028, with the 2026 amount prorated. It also says China approved an initial purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines.

China’s position is that aircraft purchases will be made according to aviation-development needs and commercial principles, while agricultural purchases and market-access arrangements form part of the broader implementation process.

The two sides are therefore dealing with several forms of trade adjustment at once: tariff treatment, product-specific purchases, market access and the identification of goods that remain outside the non-sensitive category.

PIIE expects Washington to retain tariff flexibility while China retains the option of restricting access to critical commodities such as rare earths and other minerals. PIIE

What Else Is Still Unresolved Between China And The US?

The Board of Trade covers non-sensitive goods, while U.S. national-security measures remain available and China’s export-control system for critical minerals remains in place. At the same time, the two governments are attempting to create new mechanisms for investment and AI cooperation.

ChinaFile’s researchers identify the export-control truce as one of the most consequential unresolved elements. The arrangement holds Washington’s Affiliates Rule and China’s rare-earth export-control package in abeyance, leaving the future of both measures open.

The AI risk-and-safety dialogue presents another unresolved mechanism. The two governments have agreed to pursue the dialogue, but its structure and agenda have yet to be settled.

The broader language agreed in May also remains open to interpretation. ChinaFile’s panel notes that Washington and Beijing may attach different meanings to the commitment to build a “constructive relationship of strategic stability.”

PIIE expects both governments to retain the principal economic-security instruments they have developed: U.S. tariffs and advanced-technology controls alongside China’s controls over rare earths and other critical commodities. PIIE

Can Trump And Xi Extend The Existing Trade Truce?

China’s economic and trade authorities have said the two sides are continuing consultations on implementation of agreements reached by the leaders and on issues requiring further discussion.

The Busan arrangement is broader than a simple tariff suspension. It also encompasses export-control and other economic measures, making the November 10 date relevant to several parts of the relationship.

PIIE expects the trade truce to continue and describes the likely arrangement as an “uncomfortable truce,” with neither side expected to abandon its main economic-security tools. PIIE

CSIS researchers similarly identify the continuation of the current framework, rare-earth and critical-mineral flows and additional purchase commitments among the principal issues surrounding the summit.

ChinaFile’s Paul Triolo expects the Busan arrangement to be extended while emphasizing that the more consequential question concerns which restrictions each side agrees to keep in check and whether the technology truce becomes more durable.

That leaves implementation as an important test across several sectors. Farmers and agricultural exporters are watching Chinese purchases and market access; aerospace companies are watching aircraft commitments; manufacturers are watching tariffs and access to Chinese inputs; and semiconductor, AI, automotive and defense industries are watching technology and mineral controls.

What Could The Trump-Xi Talks Mean For Global Trade?

The U.S.-China negotiations are taking place as the wider multilateral trading system faces pressure from geopolitical rivalry, technology competition, government intervention and supply-chain concerns.

The WTO’s 2026 World Trade Report describes the multilateral trading system as being at a critical juncture and examines how geopolitical tensions, economic-security measures, digitalization and artificial intelligence are reshaping global trade.

The report models three possible directions for the global trading system by 2050:

  • Geo-fragmented world: global GDP falls 5.1% and global exports fall 18.6%, as trade cooperation becomes organized around geopolitical blocs.
  • FTA world: global GDP falls 6.9% and global exports fall 26.9%, where multilateral cooperation is replaced by a network of free-trade agreements.
  • Enhanced cooperation world: global GDP rises 2.9% and global exports rise 17.9%, under stronger multilateral trade cooperation.

These are WTO economic simulations, not forecasts of the Trump-Xi meeting. The WTO report also examines how supply-chain resilience, digital governance and geopolitical tensions can interact with national and economic-security measures and affect the wider trading system.

The U.S.-China relationship is already moving through narrower mechanisms. The May U.S.-China agreement established a Board of Trade for non-sensitive goods and a Board of Investment, while the two governments also agreed to establish an intergovernmental AI dialogue.

For companies operating across borders, the immediate issues after the summit will include tariff treatment, Chinese purchases, critical-mineral licensing, technology controls and the operation of the new trade and investment mechanisms.

The September 24 meeting brings trade, agriculture, aircraft, critical minerals, technology and AI into the same negotiating framework, while November 10 marks the next scheduled point for the current economic arrangements.

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